http://bbs.hoopchina.com/read.php?tid=100604（zt和翻译）数据达人的结论：Ronnie Brewer在NBA的成功的机会最大
转自著名的篮球数据网站82games.com
原文网址：
http://82games.com/nbadraft2006.htmNCAA PLAYER SUCCESS RATES FOR THE 2006 DRAFT CLASS
by Richard Lu, 6/14/06
About a week ago, I rented Leon Gast’s follow up to When We Were Kings (great movie, if you haven’t seen it). It was basketball documentary entitled 1 Love. It was a little disappointing because it tried to do too much in too short a time frame. However, one line did really stick out to me. Hubie Brown was addressed some high schoolers at a camp and said, “To make it in The Show, you have to have either a game or a specialty.”
This quote coupled with my never-ending fascination for the draft inspired me to do a little study to see if there was a quantifiable way to determine which college players in this year’s draft had the best chance to succeed in the NBA.
So, I decided to compare this group of potential draftees from the NCAA Division I level and compared them to players in the past using Similarity Scores. Then from that, I was able to calculate their success rates.
Defining the pool of players posed a small challenge because the three-point was introduced in the college game in the 1986-87 season. Therefore, I chose the 1990 draft as the starting point to keep the number of seasons before 1986-87 to a minimum, while making the pool as large as possible. Then, the 2003 draft was the cut off point because it’s still a little too early to fully evaluate the quality of the 2004 and 2005 drafts. To do that, it takes three years to get a pretty accurate evaluation.
The Similarity Scores were calculated based on fourteen categories, which are listed below:
1. Height
2. Weight
3. Age
4. Minutes per Game
5. Total Games Played
6. Three-Point Efficiency
7. Free-Throw Efficiency
8. Two-Point Efficiency
9. Assist Rate
10. Turnover Rate
11. Rebound per 48 Minutes
12. Blocks per 48 Minutes
13. Steals per 48 Minutes
14. Personal Fouls per 48 Minutes
The maximum score is 1000 and a significant comparison would fall in the range between 800 and 1000. So, to come up with a success rate, I analyzed every comparable player that was in that range using Minutes per Game and basic production metrics like PER as the primary factors and assigned a point value to them. They are as follows:
1 – Definite All-Star, Elite Level Player (ex. Kidd, Shaq, Iverson)
0.75 – Borderline All-Star, Second Tier Player (ex. Abdur-Rahim, Antoine Walker)
0.5 – Starter, min. 25 MPG
0.25 – Borderline Starter, Bench Player, 15 MPG – 25 MPG
0 – Fringe Player (<15 MPG), Bust
So, first I calculated a player’s Minimum Success Rate by dividing the number of non-busts by the total number of players in the range, then multiplied by 100. Then, I averaged all the point values to get a Quality Index, which I used to get the percent chance that a player will end up as a starter or All-Star.
One problem I ran into was that some players didn’t have enough comparable players to get a valid success rate. In those cases, I expanded the range until I got a large enough group of comparable players.
With the nitty-gritty mathematical process out of the way, I ran the success rates for around 100 draft prospects, which should cover almost every college player who will be picked. One other note, I adjusted the rates to account for draft position, since a first rounder would have a better chance than a second rounder. So without further delay, here are the players in the 2006 Draft Class with the best chance to be starting at the end of their rookie contract.
1. Ronnie Brewer, SG, Arkansas
% Chance to Start – 61.40%
Was similar to: Joe Johnson, Caron Butler, Michael Finley
This draft isn’t as strong at the top as it has been in the last few years. But if any player is going to develop into an All-Star, it will most likely be Brewer. He has almost every factor going in his favor. He’s very athletic with an NBA body, so he can physically handle the league. On the court, he can pretty much do everything with the only question mark being the funky release on his shot. It probably cannot be corrected because it stems from a childhood accident, but it does go in with some regularity. From an intangibles perspective, there should be no questions as he’s had no off-the-court problems. Also, he’s been around the game his whole life, since his father, Ron Brewer was an eight year vet.
2. Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut
% Chance to Start – 56.71%
Was similar to: Jared Jeffries, DerMarr Johnson, Ron Artest
Gay’s ceiling may not be as high scouts would like to believe. He has a lot of skills, but his defense seems to be ahead of his offense at this point. He is similar to Brewer in that he is versatile with a wide range of skills. However, Brewer’s success rate is higher because he holds a significant advantage in the areas of ball-handling and decision-making. Scouts have questioned his assertiveness, but it’s probably a result of unreasonable expectations more than anything. His stats and behavior don’t indicate that he will be number one player. But, he does have great tools, so that will allow him to stick and be very effective in a complimentary role.
3. Shelden Williams, PF, Duke
% Chance to Start – 41.35%
Was similar to: Othella Harrington, Malik Rose, Alonzo Mourning
Shelden Williams is the safest pure big man in the draft. He’s an efficient low post scorer and excels on the defensive end. But he’s 22 and history has shown that players at this age don’t experience a lot of major development. So, he’s pretty much a finished product. Even so, he will most likely be pretty effective as a fifth wheel type role player.
4. Rajon Rondo, PG, Kentucky
% Chance to Start – 40.81%
Was similar to: Eric Snow, Jason Kidd, Dee Brown (Boston Celtics, not Illinois)
From a statistical perspective, Rondo is the best defensive point guard to enter the draft since Jason Kidd. His per minute rebound and steal rates are extraordinarily high for any point guard, much less a guy who’s only about six-two. From a visual standpoint, he possesses amazing quickness, both laterally and in straight-line speed. So this will allow him to cut off penetration and get to the basket, which will be huge key in the NBA nowadays with the new rules in effect. He does have a questionable jump shot, but he makes up for it by being a solid decision-maker and by taking good shots.
5. Shawne Williams, SF/PF, Memphis
% Chance to Start – 39.60%
Was similar to: Tim Thomas, Robert Horry, Mike Miller
Shawne Williams was most similar to Tim Thomas and that would be a fairly accurate assessment of his abilities on the court. Like Thomas, Williams can take players off the dribble, can post smaller defenders and shoot the three. Defensively, he’s more of a shot blocker than Thomas was at this stage. However, he does share some Thomas’ more negative qualities like spotty shot selection and some motivation issues. But, he will probably find a spot in the league because of his versatility.
6. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Texas
% Chance to Start – 37.63%
Was similar to: Lorenzen Wright, Samaki Walker, Rasheed Wallace
Aldridge is easily the most skilled offensive big man in this draft, but he grades out as a rather suspect defensive player. His defensive stats indicate that he is not nearly as active as he should be, considering the fact that he is very athletic and nearly seven feet tall. Then, from watching him play, he has a tendency to play soft. This could cause problems if he’s drafted by a team with a defensive minded coach.
7. Kyle Lowry, PG, Villanova
% Chance to Start – 34.88%
Was similar to: T.J. Ford, Steve Francis, Keyon Dooling
Lowry is another penetrating guard like Rondo, but has more question marks on offense and isn’t anywhere close on defense. Offensively, he doesn’t shoot the ball very well. It wouldn’t matter so much if he didn’t take a lot of questionable shots. In addition, his Assist Rate isn’t as high as it supposed to be for a point guard. Defensively, his stats are good enough, but he does have a tendency to commit cheap fouls. Most likely, he will end up as a solid back-up who could provide a team with an energy lift off the bench.
8. Brandon Roy, SG, Washington
% Chance to Start – 29.00
Was similar to: Jim Jackson, Paul Pierce, Antonio Daniels
Statistically, Roy didn’t grade out as high as I would’ve expected. Offensively, he checks out well by doing most of his damage as a slasher. He also has sound passing and decision-making skills, which will be an excellent bonus for the team that drafts him. On defense, he didn’t grade out as well. He might be more of a stay-at-home defender than a help guy because his steals and block rates weren’t really high. One concern on the defensive end would be that he is a little foul prone and with the new rules in place, it could be a bigger problem.
9. Marcus Williams, PG, Connecticut
% Chance to Start – 24.52%
Was similar to: Jacque Vaughn, Tyronn Lue, Steve Nash
Marcus Williams is first specialist to show up on the list. He’s a specialist because his only real skill is his ability is passing, everything else is a little bit spotty. On the positive side, his Assist Rate was the fourth highest among all players evaluated. On the negative side, his scoring ability will be a question mark as he isn’t a good athlete or very quick, so he will have problems getting into the line. This makes his shot selection an even greater question mark, since his eFG% is only about 45.5%. Defensively, he always had great shot blockers behind him, so his flaws were hidden. He probably won’t have that luxury in the pros, so his man defense will be problem since he is limited athletically.
10. Darius Washington, PG, Memphis
% Chance to Start – 23.38%
Was similar to: Gilbert Arenas, Chauncey Billups, Maurice Williams
This is the only major surprise on this list. Washington compared favorably to Gilbert Arenas even though he had a down year at Memphis this year. Like Arenas, his game is probably more suited to the NBA than to college. His one-on-one abilities will make him a threat on the offensive end because he can penetrate, dish and hit the outside shot. He’s held back a bit since he doesn’t seem to understand the game that well. Ideally, he should be drafted by team like Atlanta in the upper part of the second round. In a place like that, he would get playing time to develop his skills and be on a team that will be a patient with his mistakes.
11. Tyrus Thomas, PF, LSU
% Chance to Start – 23.00%
Was similar to: Drew Gooden, Stromile Swift, Antonio McDyess
Thomas is projected by most draft experts as a candidate for the top pick. However, his upside is not as high as the experts would think. He’s a phenomenal athlete with great skills on the defensive end. But, he doesn’t have much of an offensive game, being limited only dunks and put-backs. History has shown that post players are generally slow to develop their offensive game. So the odds are that Thomas will be similar to Stromile Swift being a fifth wheel or an energy guy off the bench.
NOTABLE OMISSIONS
Patrick O’Bryant, C, Bradley
% Chance to Start – 18.65%
Was similar to: Yinka Dare, Nazr Mohammed, Erick Dampier
O’Bryant grades out as similar to Tyrus Thomas, but not nearly as high because Thomas’ numbers are generally higher across the board. He has a lot of same problems as Thomas in that his offense is still under-developed, but he has added concern of being a bit soft and undisciplined. He is doesn’t go to the foul line as much and will shy away from contact at times. Also, he is very foul prone, which will limit his minutes in the NBA.
Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga
% Chance to Start – 17.51%
Was similar to: Casey Jacobsen, Calbert Cheaney, Pat Garrity
Morrison’s type has not done well historically, so it may be an explanation as to why his success rate is low. He grades out as strictly a catch-and-shoot scorer who does not look to pass or put the ball on the floor. This tendency may hurt him in the NBA, because he’s not very athletic and can’t create his own shot. Defensively, he has long way to go to say the least. His stats are poor with exception to rebounds. Then from watching him, he seems to really struggle to stay in front of his man. His success really depends on the team that drafts him and the system they play.
Rodney Carney, SF, Memphis
% Chance to Start – 14.40%
Was similar to: Tayshaun Prince, James Jones, Kyle Korver
Carney is an absolute enigma on the offensive end. He has a ton of athleticism, but doesn’t use it very much, since he spends most of his time jacking up three pointers. In fact, half of his field goal attempts over the course of his career were threes. He doesn’t look to pass, so this may be a bigger problem in the pros. His best chance to stick will probably be with his defense. He puts up solid stats and is athletic enough to stay in front of people, so that does work in his favor.
Randy Foye, SG, Villanova
% Chance to Start – 10.19%
Was similar to: Bob Sura, Derek Fisher, Jimmy King
Foye fits the most common type of player with the highest bust rate, which is the undersized two, not really a point guard position. That doesn’t bode too well for Foye, but he does have the tools to buck the odds. Also, he shown significant improvement over his four year career, but at 22, he might have topped out. So, he projects to be player off the bench in the mold of Fred Jones.
J.J. Redick, SG, Duke
% Chance to Start – 4.34 %
Was similar to: Trajan Langdon, Shawn Respert, Terry Dehere
The odds are really stacked against Redick to say the least. The problem with Redick is that he is as one-dimensional as it gets with his shooting being the only plus. He does not do anything else particularly well and on top of that, he is undersized and not athletic enough for the NBA. He might make it as a specialist, but every specialist in the past had some other plus skill in addition. Steve Kerr had point guard skills and Kyle Korver was a good rebounder in college. So, Redick might suffer a fate similar to Trajan Langdon, who was out of the league in three years.
I took a few things away from running this little study.
1. Versatility will greatly improve a player’s chances of success.
2. Guards have a higher chance to succeed if they work from inside-out.
3. College big men drafted outside the top 5 will not become elite players.
This method is not going to predict the future, but it could be useful way to assess the on-court risk associated with draft prospects. Then again, I could be wrong or I could be right. As it always is with the draft, time will tell.
If you have comments or want to know some other player’s success rate, please email me at rvl82@nbamarketreport.com
主要内容翻译：
因为美国大学篮球86/87年才引入了三分球制和为了对被选秀球员在NBA的数据作3年以上的统计，作者采用了从90年选秀开始到03年选秀球员在NBA的数据作为一个数据库。作者还采用了相似度值（Similarity Score）的概念比较今年参选的球员和数据库中的这些球员。这个相似度值是从14个项目中计算出来的。它们是：身高，体重，年龄，上场时间，比赛数，三分效率，罚篮效率，两分效率，助攻率，失误率，每48分钟篮板，每48分钟盖帽，每48分钟盗球，每48分钟犯规。
相似度值的最高分为1000。如果这个值在800和1000之间则认为两个队员非常类似。每个在数据库中的类似球员都根据每场比赛时间和表现值加以权重，比如巨星为1，底线明星为0.75,场均15分钟以下为0等等。作者先把没有成为垃圾的球员数（指权重不为0）除已全部相类似的球员数（指所有相似度值在800到1000的那些人）再乘100得出今年选秀的那个球员的最小成功率值。然后作者把计算出的所有值再取平均，这个平均数可以看作一个球员能否在NBA作先发或者全明星的质量指数。
如果有球员的相似模版太少，则采取扩大相似值范围的方法，直到有足够的的样板来进行比较。作者的分析覆盖了今年参选的100多位球员，并且在以上分析的基础上提高了有望第一轮选中球员的成功率。
分析结果：
1。Ronnie Brewer
首发概率：61.4%
模版：Joe Johnson，Caron Butler，Finley
最有可能成为全明星。他具备所有必须的素质。人们对他的投篮还有疑问，但是只要能进，再难看的投篮也没关系。他没有场外问题。因为他父亲的原因，他从小就在篮球中泡大。
2。Rudy Gay
首发概率：56.71%
模版：Jared Jeffries, DerMarr Johnson, Ron Artest
Gay男的潜力可能没有人们想象的那么大。他拥有多种技术，但是防守好于进攻。其多面性类似Brewer，但是Brewer具有更好的控球和决策判断能力。他的数据和场上表现暗示着他不会是球队老大，但是会成为一个非常有效的角色球员。
3。Shelden Williams
41.35%
模版：O. Harrinton, M. Rose, Alonzo Mourning
房东是本届选秀最安全的大个子选择，可以提供低位进攻和防守。但是他已经22岁了，历史显示在他这个年龄的球员没有多少上升空间。但是可成为不错的角色球员。
4。Rajon Rondo
40.81%
模版：Eric Snow， Jason Kidd， Dee Brown（波士顿那个，不是伊大的那个）
单从数据上看，Rondo是选秀中自从基得以来防守最好的后卫，他的每分钟篮板和盗球都是控球后卫中最高的，而且他只有6尺2。他拥有惊人的侧面和直线的速度，这允许他能直接突破篮下得分，这在NBA现在的新规则下是相当得益的。他可能有时投篮不是很好，但是可以通过他很好的决断能力弥补。
5。Shawne Williams
39.6%
模版：Tim Thomas，Robert Horry，Mike Miller
他最像的就是Tim Thomas了。特别是他的运球，射三分能力。防守上他的封盖能力比Thomas那时的还要好。他们的缺点也很象，比如不好的投篮选择和一些动机上的问题。但是他可以因为他的多面性而找到他的位置。
6。LaMarcus Aldridge
37.63%
模版：Lorenzen Wright，Samaki Walker， Rasheed Wallace
本届选秀进攻上最有技巧的大个子。但是以他的身高和运动能力，他的防守还显得不够积极。看他的打球，你会觉得他的球风偏软。如果选他的那个队的教练很强调防守那就会成为一个问题。
7。Kyle Lowry
34.88%
模版：T.J. Ford, Steve Francis, K. Dooling
他的突破有点像Rando，但是他进攻上还存在疑问，防守上也远远不如Rando。进攻上，他的投篮不是很好，但是如果他不出手很多的话问题不大。他的助攻率也没有想象的高。防守上从数据上来讲还行，但是有容易犯规的倾向。他最有可能的是作为板凳球员上场带来一些能量和激情。
8。Brandon Roy
29%
模版：Jim Jackson，Paul Pierce， Antonio Daniels
他的统计数据没有象作者期待的那么突出。进攻上他有很强得分，传球和决策能力。防守上，他的抢断和盖帽率其实不那么高。他有容易犯规的倾向，在NBA新规则下，这有可能成为一个大问题。
9。Marcus Williams
24.52%
模版：Jacque Vaughn, Tyronn Lue, Steve Nash
他是这张统计表里面的第一个专家型球员。他的真正突出能力就是传球，其它的都很平庸。他的助攻率在所有评估的球员中排第4位。但是他的得分能力会因为身体素质有限而成为疑问。他防守上的问题在大学还不是很明显，这是因为他身后有很多盖帽高手在，到了NBA，会因为他的身体素质而成为问题。
10。Darius Washington
23.38%
模版：Gilbert Arenas， Chauncey Billups, Maurice Williams
他是这表里唯一的惊喜。虽然他今年在Memphis表现不好，但是他还是最象Arenas的。他也许更适合NBA而不是大学篮球。他在进攻段能突，能传，能远投。他表现不好的原因是因为他理解比赛的能力尚需提高。最理想的是，他能在第二轮高位被像亚特兰大那样的队摘走，这样他既能得到上场时间来锻炼他的技能，也能更加宽容和耐心得对待他的错误。
11。Tyrus Thomas
23%
模版：Drew Gooden， Stromile Swift, Antonio McDyess
他被许多的模拟选秀排在前几名，但是他的潜力没有专家们认为的那么大。他是一个非常出色的跳跳男，防守端很有技巧。但是进攻端他的手段有限，大多是扣篮和补篮。历史显示低位球员要发展他的进攻能力是很缓慢的。Thomas有可能成为象斯威夫特那样的轮换球员，或者随时从板凳上爆发。
其它值得一提的有：
Patrick O'Bryant
18.65%
模版：Yinka Dare，Nazr Mohammed, Erick Dampier
他和Tyrus Thomas有很多相同。但是在数据上TT还是全面超过了他。他的进攻能力还不成熟，打球有点软，纪律性比较差。他罚球次数比较少，有时不太愿意和对手发生身体对抗。他也比较容易掉入犯规陷阱，这会限制他在NBA的上场时间。
Adam Morrison
17.51%
模版：Casey Jacobsen, Calbert Cheaney, Pat Garrity
历史上象Morrison 这样类型的球员成功的不多。他的突出点是接球就投，而不是传球，使球运转起来。这种趋势会使他的NBA前途蒙上阴影，因为他运动能力不很突出，不能为自己创造投篮机会。防守上，他还差得很远，数据显示只有篮板还过得去。他的成功将取决于他是否在适合他的球队系统打球。
Rodney Carney
14.4%
模版：Tayshaun Prince， James Jones， Kyle Korver
康尼在进攻端就是一个谜。他拥有那么NB的身体却很少利用它，他大多数时候都在投三分。事实上，大学里他一半以上的投篮都是三分球。他不是那种能想到传球的，这将成为一个大问题。他在NBA能否取得成功将取决于他的防守，他有足够的条件和能力去做到这个。
Randy Foye
10.19%
模版：Bob Sura，Derek Fisher， Jimmy King
Foye这种类型的就是最容易演变成垃圾的那种。打2号位太矮，又不是真正的控球后卫。看起来这不利于Foye，但是他也有机会打破这个说法。他在大学四年中已经显示了明显的进步，不过22岁的他看来发展潜力有限。最大可能是象Fred Jones那样作为替补上场。
J.J. Redick
4.34%
模版：Trajan Langdon, Shawn Respert, Terry Dehere
JJ的问题是他太过单一化，他的身高和运动能力在NBA都是问题。他也许能成为一个专家型选手，可是过去每个专家还都有着其它的特长。Steve Kerr有控球后卫的能力，Kyle Korver在大学是篮板好手。所以，雷迪克可能更接近已经离开NBA的Langdon。
在这个统计调查中作者还发现归纳了几条规律：
1. 全面的队员更有机会获得成功
2. 后卫如果肯刻苦训练的话成功的机会更大
3. 大学里的大个子如果没有被前5位选中的话就不会成为全明星级的
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